Tuesday, January 30, 2007


As in other attempts to withstand science, the global warming naysayers are soon going to have to blame god for a naked Antarctica and a submarine Florida, among the many geoanomalies yet to come, as actual nature marches on in actual reaction to the designer-shod human footprint.

According to Climate Change 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report, as previewed by The Independent:

"'Anthropogenic warming of the climate system is widespread and can be detected in temperature observations taken at the surface, in the free atmosphere and in the oceans,' the draft report says. 'It is highly likely [greater than 95 per cent probability] that the warming observed during the past half century cannot be explained without external forcing [human activity].'

* Sea levels will rise significantly even if levels of CO2 are stabilised. By 2100 sea levels could be 0.43 metres higher on average than present, and by 2300 they could be up to 0.8 metres higher.

The IPCC also finally nails the canard of the climate sceptics who argue that global warming is a myth or the result of natural climate variability; natural factors alone cannot account for the observed warming, the IPCC says. 'These changes took place at a time when non-anthropogenic forcing factors (i.e. the sum of solar and volcanic forcing) would be expected to have produced cooling, not warming.

There is increased confidence that natural internal variability cannot account for the observed changes, due in part to improved studies demonstrating that the warming occurred in both oceans and atmosphere, together with observed ice mass losses.'

Key findings of the report:

* Global temperatures continue to rise with 11 of the 12 warmest years since 1850 occurring since 1995. Computer models suggest a further rise of about 3C by 2100, with a 6C rise a distant possibility

* It is virtually certain (there is more than a 99 per cent probability [emphasis mine. RB]) that carbon dioxide levels and global warming is far above the range of natural variability over the past 650,000 years

* It is virtually certain that human activity has played the dominant role in causing the increase of greenhouse gases over the past 250 years

* Man-made emissions of atmospheric aerosol pollutants have tended to counteract global warming, which otherwise would have been significantly worse

* The net effect of human activities over the past 250 years has very likely exerted a warming influence on the climate

* It is likely that human activity is also responsible for other observed changes to the Earth's climate system, such as ocean warming and the melting of the Arctic sea ice

* Sea levels will continue to rise in the 21st Century because of the thermal expansion of the oceans and loss of land ice

* The projected warming of the climate due to increases in carbon dioxide during the 21st Century is likely to cause the total melting of the Greenland ice sheet during the next 1,000 years, according to some computer forecasting models

* The warm Gulf Stream of the North Atlantic is likely to slow down during the 21st Century because of global warming and the melting of the freshwater locked up in the Greenland ice sheet. But no models predict the collapse of that warm current by 2100.


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that over the coming century we are likely to see big changes to the Earth's climate system. These include:

* Heat waves, such as the one that affected southern Europe in summer 2003, are expected to be more intense, longer-lasting and more frequent.

* Tropical storms and hurricanes are likely to be stronger, with increased rainfall and higher storm surges flooding coastlines.

* The Arctic is likely to become ice free in the summer, and there will be continued melting of mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets.'"

The IPCC 4th Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers will be available on the IPCC website from February 2, 2007.

via Metafilter

Then there are the completely impenetrables:
Survey shows 13% of Americans never heard of global warming


Mary Lou said...

well they will when the tide comes in...

Robert Brady said...

Snorkel time...

Ronni Bennett said...

Why isn't this getting bigger play in print and TV news than Clinton and Obama - in the U.S. anyway?

How well is it being reported in Asia?

Anonymous said...

Why are you fighting this process? Looks like an easy way to ensure Democrat hegemony for the next millenium!


Trace said...

Its difficult to believe there are actually 13% of of American people who have not heard of global warming! Are they truely living on this planet?

Robert Brady said...

Ronni-- it's being reported, but not too many really know much about it, I never hear it being talked about; but Japan's always been in an eco-energy cruch, so maybe it all runs deeper than in the US...

Leonard, no self-respecting Democrat would ever seek hegemony, nor would anyone with integrity; unlike the current situation, they'd prefer actual democracy, since we're all in this together. Every voice is needed and should be heard. It's the balance of the extremes that keeps us from making asses of ourselves.