Thursday, February 23, 2006


I SURE HOPE THEY'RE WRONG,


But just in case they're not, this might give you some time to get ready...

"The Laboratoire EuropĂ©en d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.

The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

-- On the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros [see what happened to Saddam when he tried it...] on March 20, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region;

-- On the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward.

These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system."

Full article

Excellent analysis of the situation here

4 comments:

Joy Des Jardins said...

Well, isn't THAT a booger!

Robert Brady said...

Like I say, I sure do hope they're wrong... but when you live in tornado country, it's best to have a solid basement...

Ronni Bennett said...

Good god. Not that I haven't been expecting a calamity of some sort but without the knowledge to figure out how. I guess we all need to get ready to duck.

My only question is their track record. Have they successfuly predicted events in the past?

Robert Brady said...

I don't know. I just know that I've been following the Iran Oil bourse thing and the M3 erasure for some time; this is the first time I saw them linked, and their time connection; seemed eminently plausible, at least... we'll see soon enough...